Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Shunkong Development Co.,Ltd. (003039.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$45.25 - $87.74$82.23
Multi-Stage$13.94 - $15.24$14.58
Blended Fair Value$48.40
Current Price$13.26
Upside265.02%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS32.23%7.07%0.550.110.130.120.100.140.130.150.120.12
YoY Growth--396.25%-12.60%2.42%19.86%-24.08%5.40%-12.16%20.45%3.95%-57.75%
Dividend Yield--4.01%0.82%0.68%0.57%0.24%1.61%0.00%0.00%1.45%1.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)272.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)192.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)80.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.4934.0620.44
Cash Retained (M)80.4780.4780.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.49-34.06-20.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)25.9746.4160.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)617.60617.60617.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.080.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.080.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$45.25$82.23$87.74
Upside / Downside241.21%520.10%561.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)272.47290.18309.05329.13350.53373.31384.51
Payout Ratio70.47%74.37%78.28%82.19%86.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)192.00215.82241.92270.51301.78335.98355.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)201.08202.99204.89
Year 2 PV (M)210.00214.00218.04
Year 3 PV (M)218.78225.06231.46
Year 4 PV (M)227.40236.15245.14
Year 5 PV (M)235.88247.27259.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,514.527,877.488,254.32
Equity Value (M)8,607.679,002.959,412.96
Shares Outstanding (M)617.60617.60617.60
Fair Value$13.94$14.58$15.24
Upside / Downside5.11%9.94%14.94%

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