Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiamei Food Packaging (Chuzhou) Co.,Ltd (002969.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.29 - $4.24$3.09
Multi-Stage$3.37 - $3.71$3.54
Blended Fair Value$3.32
Current Price$3.48
Upside-4.73%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS43.39%1.95%0.290.010.010.010.020.050.060.480.070.11
YoY Growth--2,525.24%-0.03%10.21%-46.94%-60.50%-24.85%-86.61%563.85%-35.37%-53.62%
Dividend Yield--8.83%0.31%0.28%0.20%0.39%0.53%1.21%9.07%1.37%2.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)148.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)134.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.6418.5211.11
Cash Retained (M)134.03134.03134.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.64-18.52-11.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)104.39115.51122.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)950.83950.83950.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.140.14
WACC / Discount Rate6.80%6.80%6.80%
Growth Rate1.29%2.29%3.29%
Fair Value$2.29$3.09$4.24
Upside / Downside-34.12%-11.09%21.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)148.19151.59155.06158.61162.25165.97170.95
Payout Ratio9.55%25.64%41.73%57.82%73.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14.1638.8764.7191.71119.92149.37158.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.80%6.80%6.80%
Growth Rate1.29%2.29%3.29%
Year 1 PV (M)36.0436.4036.75
Year 2 PV (M)55.6356.7357.85
Year 3 PV (M)73.1075.2977.52
Year 4 PV (M)88.6292.1795.83
Year 5 PV (M)102.35107.50112.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,851.122,994.673,143.94
Equity Value (M)3,206.863,362.753,524.74
Shares Outstanding (M)950.83950.83950.83
Fair Value$3.37$3.54$3.71
Upside / Downside-3.08%1.63%6.52%

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