Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhejiang Shibao Company Limited (002703.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.33 - $45.16$42.32
Multi-Stage$32.83 - $36.03$34.40
Blended Fair Value$38.36
Current Price$14.05
Upside173.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS51.67%-4.65%0.030.010.010.010.010.000.000.040.040.05
YoY Growth--234.34%49.02%9.27%4.99%40.43%107.15%-95.43%-0.84%-15.87%-2.12%
Dividend Yield--0.24%0.06%0.07%0.10%0.10%0.08%0.03%0.61%0.30%0.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)186.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)49.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)136.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)37.3623.3514.01
Cash Retained (M)136.90136.90136.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-37.36-23.35-14.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)99.53113.55122.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)822.78822.78822.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate-2.37%-2.37%-2.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$38.33$42.32$45.16
Upside / Downside172.79%201.19%221.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)186.82198.96211.89225.66240.33255.95263.63
Payout Ratio26.72%39.38%52.03%64.69%77.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)49.9278.34110.25145.98185.88230.36243.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-2.37%-2.37%-2.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)79.4980.2480.99
Year 2 PV (M)113.50115.66117.84
Year 3 PV (M)152.47156.85161.31
Year 4 PV (M)196.99204.56212.35
Year 5 PV (M)247.68259.65272.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,220.0627,486.5028,801.40
Equity Value (M)27,010.1828,303.4529,645.97
Shares Outstanding (M)822.78822.78822.78
Fair Value$32.83$34.40$36.03
Upside / Downside133.65%144.84%156.45%

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