Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangsu NanFang Precision Co.,Ltd. (002553.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$167.13 - $196.91$184.53
Multi-Stage$143.45 - $157.48$150.33
Blended Fair Value$167.43
Current Price$29.89
Upside460.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.12%6.02%0.200.100.200.100.100.200.200.200.100.10
YoY Growth--99.61%-49.50%99.71%0.25%-50.76%1.54%0.00%100.00%0.00%-11.11%
Dividend Yield--0.99%0.81%1.62%1.09%0.87%4.31%2.90%2.50%0.66%0.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)344.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)309.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)68.9143.0725.84
Cash Retained (M)309.04309.04309.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-68.91-43.07-25.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)240.13265.97283.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)347.97347.97347.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.690.760.81
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.690.760.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.790.870.92
WACC / Discount Rate-2.46%-2.46%-2.46%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$167.13$184.53$196.91
Upside / Downside459.15%517.37%558.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)344.53366.92390.77416.17443.22472.03486.19
Payout Ratio10.30%26.24%42.18%58.12%74.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35.4996.28164.83241.88328.25424.83449.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-2.46%-2.46%-2.46%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)97.7898.7199.64
Year 2 PV (M)170.01173.25176.51
Year 3 PV (M)253.37260.64268.05
Year 4 PV (M)349.20362.63376.44
Year 5 PV (M)458.98481.15504.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)48,588.2450,935.0753,371.72
Equity Value (M)49,917.5852,311.4554,796.53
Shares Outstanding (M)347.97347.97347.97
Fair Value$143.45$150.33$157.48
Upside / Downside379.94%402.96%426.85%

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