Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Guangdong Jialong Food Co., Ltd. (002495.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.16 - $0.23$0.19
Multi-Stage$0.30 - $0.33$0.31
Blended Fair Value$0.25
Current Price$2.63
Upside-90.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.010.000.000.010.000.010.03
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%-76.20%11.11%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.29%0.00%0.00%0.26%0.00%0.14%0.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)12.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.992.491.50
Cash Retained (M)12.6012.6012.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.99-2.49-1.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)8.6110.1111.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)928.29928.29928.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.020.020.02
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate-2.58%-1.58%-0.58%
Fair Value$0.16$0.19$0.23
Upside / Downside-94.00%-92.68%-91.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19.9419.6219.3119.0118.7018.4118.96
Payout Ratio36.82%47.45%58.09%68.73%79.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.349.3111.2213.0614.8416.5717.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate-2.58%-1.58%-0.58%
Year 1 PV (M)8.538.628.71
Year 2 PV (M)9.429.619.81
Year 3 PV (M)10.0510.3610.68
Year 4 PV (M)10.4710.9011.35
Year 5 PV (M)10.7011.2711.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)225.81237.64249.96
Equity Value (M)274.98288.41302.36
Shares Outstanding (M)928.29928.29928.29
Fair Value$0.30$0.31$0.33
Upside / Downside-88.74%-88.19%-87.62%

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