Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shanghai Zhezhong Group Co.,Ltd (002346.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$97.39 - $265.49$248.81
Multi-Stage$36.88 - $40.39$38.60
Blended Fair Value$143.70
Current Price$18.24
Upside687.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.97%19.57%0.250.200.200.210.210.210.210.100.110.01
YoY Growth--23.10%-0.81%-0.49%0.00%0.00%0.00%100.00%-8.55%1,339.60%-81.33%
Dividend Yield--2.15%2.03%1.52%1.51%1.99%2.00%1.29%0.53%0.27%0.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)572.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)105.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)467.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)114.6071.6242.97
Cash Retained (M)467.10467.10467.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-114.60-71.62-42.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)352.51395.48424.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)429.21429.21429.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.820.920.99
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.820.920.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.071.171.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$97.39$248.81$265.49
Upside / Downside433.92%1,264.07%1,355.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)572.98610.23649.89692.13737.12785.04808.59
Payout Ratio18.48%32.78%47.09%61.39%75.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)105.88200.05306.02424.91557.97706.53747.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)185.80187.56189.33
Year 2 PV (M)263.98269.01274.08
Year 3 PV (M)340.44350.21360.17
Year 4 PV (M)415.21431.18447.60
Year 5 PV (M)488.32511.90536.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,135.7514,818.5115,527.40
Equity Value (M)15,829.4916,568.3717,334.97
Shares Outstanding (M)429.21429.21429.21
Fair Value$36.88$38.60$40.39
Upside / Downside102.20%111.63%121.43%

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