Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhejiang Kan Specialities Material Co., Ltd. (002012.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.05 - $0.06$0.05
Multi-Stage$0.08 - $0.09$0.09
Blended Fair Value$0.07
Current Price$5.49
Upside-98.72%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.91%4.61%0.040.020.040.030.020.030.020.040.020.02
YoY Growth--75.43%-45.92%11.77%65.11%-34.09%29.32%-45.54%148.25%-6.38%-16.93%
Dividend Yield--0.77%0.45%0.65%0.61%0.33%0.53%0.41%0.59%0.13%0.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.970.610.36
Cash Retained (M)2.432.432.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.97-0.61-0.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.461.822.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)485.82485.82485.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.010.010.01
WACC / Discount Rate10.01%10.01%10.01%
Growth Rate-6.47%-5.47%-4.47%
Fair Value$0.05$0.05$0.06
Upside / Downside-99.17%-99.03%-98.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4.864.594.344.103.883.673.78
Payout Ratio49.97%57.97%65.98%73.99%81.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.432.662.863.043.183.303.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.01%10.01%10.01%
Growth Rate-6.47%-5.47%-4.47%
Year 1 PV (M)2.392.422.45
Year 2 PV (M)2.322.372.42
Year 3 PV (M)2.212.282.35
Year 4 PV (M)2.082.172.27
Year 5 PV (M)1.942.052.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)29.3430.9432.62
Equity Value (M)40.2942.2344.26
Shares Outstanding (M)485.82485.82485.82
Fair Value$0.08$0.09$0.09
Upside / Downside-98.49%-98.42%-98.34%

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