Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shanghai Smart Control Co., Ltd. (001266.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.75 - $5.76$4.69
Multi-Stage$8.47 - $9.30$8.88
Blended Fair Value$6.78
Current Price$28.66
Upside-76.34%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS7.00%0.00%0.240.220.440.000.510.170.030.000.000.00
YoY Growth--12.79%-51.22%0.00%-100.00%190.30%452.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.04%0.82%1.55%0.00%1.27%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)41.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)34.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.245.153.09
Cash Retained (M)6.416.416.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.24-5.15-3.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.841.263.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)99.2499.2499.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.010.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.010.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.75$4.69$5.76
Upside / Downside-86.90%-83.64%-79.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)41.2240.8140.4040.0039.6039.2040.38
Payout Ratio84.46%85.56%86.67%87.78%88.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)34.8134.9235.0235.1135.2035.2837.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)32.4032.7333.06
Year 2 PV (M)30.1530.7731.40
Year 3 PV (M)28.0628.9229.81
Year 4 PV (M)26.1027.1828.30
Year 5 PV (M)24.2825.5426.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)699.28735.69773.61
Equity Value (M)840.27880.84923.03
Shares Outstanding (M)99.2499.2499.24
Fair Value$8.47$8.88$9.30
Upside / Downside-70.46%-69.03%-67.55%

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