Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Tianjin Jinbin Development Co., Ltd. (000897.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.81 - $3.83$2.56
Multi-Stage$1.29 - $1.41$1.35
Blended Fair Value$1.95
Current Price$2.28
Upside-14.26%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-58.07%-41.74%0.000.000.010.040.050.050.080.100.110.13
YoY Growth---29.55%-88.70%-76.41%-23.07%-10.31%-30.35%-24.32%-11.22%-13.27%-14.37%
Dividend Yield--0.03%0.04%0.38%1.04%2.08%2.32%2.95%3.14%2.46%2.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)155.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)155.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.0619.4111.65
Cash Retained (M)155.28155.28155.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.06-19.41-11.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)124.22135.87143.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,613.341,613.341,613.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.080.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.080.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.080.09
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1.81$2.56$3.83
Upside / Downside-20.79%12.45%68.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)155.31165.40176.15187.60199.80212.78219.17
Payout Ratio0.02%18.01%36.01%54.01%72.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.0329.7963.43101.32143.86191.50202.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)26.8327.0927.34
Year 2 PV (M)51.4452.4253.41
Year 3 PV (M)74.0076.1278.29
Year 4 PV (M)94.6298.26102.01
Year 5 PV (M)113.44118.92124.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,715.801,798.671,884.72
Equity Value (M)2,076.132,171.482,270.37
Shares Outstanding (M)1,613.341,613.341,613.34
Fair Value$1.29$1.35$1.41
Upside / Downside-43.56%-40.97%-38.28%

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