Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shenyang Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. (000698.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.62 - $0.84$0.73
Multi-Stage$1.97 - $2.19$2.08
Blended Fair Value$1.40
Current Price$3.99
Upside-64.79%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.95%-11.81%0.070.100.150.090.000.070.180.250.220.26
YoY Growth---24.39%-36.13%66.71%0.00%-100.00%-62.77%-30.58%14.91%-14.37%1.65%
Dividend Yield--2.13%2.53%3.31%1.82%0.00%1.82%3.82%4.56%2.80%3.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)107.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)33.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)74.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.5813.498.09
Cash Retained (M)74.2074.2074.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.58-13.49-8.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)52.6360.7266.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)816.74816.74816.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.12
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-9.14%-8.14%-7.14%
Fair Value$0.62$0.73$0.84
Upside / Downside-84.47%-81.65%-78.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)107.8899.0991.0283.6176.8070.5572.66
Payout Ratio31.22%42.97%54.73%66.49%78.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)33.6842.5849.8255.5960.0963.4967.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-9.14%-8.14%-7.14%
Year 1 PV (M)39.6040.0440.48
Year 2 PV (M)43.0944.0445.01
Year 3 PV (M)44.7246.2147.74
Year 4 PV (M)44.9646.9749.05
Year 5 PV (M)44.1846.6649.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,394.191,472.621,554.55
Equity Value (M)1,610.741,696.551,786.07
Shares Outstanding (M)816.74816.74816.74
Fair Value$1.97$2.08$2.19
Upside / Downside-50.57%-47.94%-45.19%

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