Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Changhong Huayi Compressor Co., Ltd. (000404.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$53.09 - $130.05$121.88
Multi-Stage$18.58 - $20.35$19.45
Blended Fair Value$70.66
Current Price$7.11
Upside893.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.63%19.39%0.340.410.280.180.100.110.140.110.110.07
YoY Growth---16.48%43.50%58.19%85.61%-14.56%-18.77%30.42%-3.12%60.51%18.77%
Dividend Yield--4.42%5.76%4.63%3.60%2.14%3.21%2.80%1.84%1.23%0.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)454.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)413.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)90.8356.7734.06
Cash Retained (M)413.98413.98413.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-90.83-56.77-34.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)323.16357.22379.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)694.48694.48694.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.470.510.55
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.470.510.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.570.60
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$53.09$121.88$130.05
Upside / Downside646.69%1,614.16%1,729.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)454.14483.66515.10548.58584.24622.21640.88
Payout Ratio8.84%25.07%41.31%57.54%73.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.16121.27212.76315.64430.98559.99592.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)112.76113.83114.90
Year 2 PV (M)183.94187.45190.98
Year 3 PV (M)253.72261.01268.43
Year 4 PV (M)322.13334.51347.26
Year 5 PV (M)389.17407.97427.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,639.1612,201.3312,785.03
Equity Value (M)12,900.8813,506.1014,134.08
Shares Outstanding (M)694.48694.48694.48
Fair Value$18.58$19.45$20.35
Upside / Downside161.27%173.53%186.25%

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