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AT&T Inc. 5.625% Global Notes d (TBC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.92 - $20.23$17.63
Multi-Stage$29.90 - $32.87$31.36
Blended Fair Value$24.49
Current Price$24.97
Upside-1.91%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-11.23%-1.50%1.141.131.372.102.082.071.871.681.641.42
YoY Growth--0.88%-17.48%-34.57%0.75%0.46%11.02%11.40%2.04%15.66%6.78%
Dividend Yield--4.58%4.57%5.51%8.24%7.74%8.13%7.33%6.74%6.60%5.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)22,173.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12,339.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)9,834.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,434.602,771.631,662.98
Cash Retained (M)9,834.009,834.009,834.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,434.60-2,771.63-1,662.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,399.407,062.388,171.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,179.987,179.987,179.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.750.981.14
LTM Dividend per Share1.721.721.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.750.981.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.472.702.86
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-6.42%-5.42%-4.42%
Fair Value$14.92$17.63$20.23
Upside / Downside-40.25%-29.39%-18.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)22,173.0020,972.1819,836.4018,762.1317,746.0316,784.9617,288.51
Payout Ratio55.65%62.52%69.39%76.26%83.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12,339.0013,111.6013,764.3314,307.9014,752.2315,106.4715,991.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-6.42%-5.42%-4.42%
Year 1 PV (M)11,893.0912,020.1712,147.25
Year 2 PV (M)11,324.8611,568.1711,814.08
Year 3 PV (M)10,678.0611,024.0411,377.40
Year 4 PV (M)9,986.4910,420.2310,867.94
Year 5 PV (M)9,275.929,782.2210,310.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)161,506.45170,321.77179,517.88
Equity Value (M)214,664.87225,136.60236,034.94
Shares Outstanding (M)7,179.987,179.987,179.98
Fair Value$29.90$31.36$32.87
Upside / Downside19.73%25.58%31.65%

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