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Origin Enterprises plc (OIZ.IR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.78 - $31.20$20.95
Multi-Stage$21.64 - $23.76$22.68
Blended Fair Value$21.81
Current Price$3.72
Upside486.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-7.81%-3.34%0.160.160.160.120.030.240.230.230.230.27
YoY Growth---3.82%3.06%33.76%239.96%-85.23%1.55%0.00%0.00%-13.04%21.15%
Dividend Yield--4.23%5.23%4.96%3.03%1.01%8.75%4.50%3.77%3.65%4.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)93.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)56.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.6411.656.99
Cash Retained (M)56.8156.8156.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.64-11.65-6.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)38.1745.1649.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)113.33113.33113.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.400.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.400.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.660.720.76
WACC / Discount Rate6.29%6.29%6.29%
Growth Rate1.76%2.76%3.76%
Fair Value$14.78$20.95$31.20
Upside / Downside297.29%463.14%738.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)93.1895.7598.40101.11103.90106.77109.98
Payout Ratio39.03%49.23%59.42%69.61%79.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.3747.1458.4770.3982.9296.09101.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.29%6.29%6.29%
Growth Rate1.76%2.76%3.76%
Year 1 PV (M)43.9244.3544.78
Year 2 PV (M)50.7551.7552.76
Year 3 PV (M)56.9258.6260.35
Year 4 PV (M)62.4864.9767.54
Year 5 PV (M)67.4570.8374.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,170.692,279.462,392.55
Equity Value (M)2,452.212,569.982,692.33
Shares Outstanding (M)113.33113.33113.33
Fair Value$21.64$22.68$23.76
Upside / Downside481.68%509.61%538.63%

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