Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

NOBA Bank Group AB (NOBA.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$72.41 - $110.78$90.35
Multi-Stage$151.07 - $166.56$158.66
Blended Fair Value$124.50
Current Price$94.00
Upside32.45%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.400.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,028.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)203.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,825.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)605.60378.50227.10
Cash Retained (M)2,825.002,825.002,825.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-605.60-378.50-227.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,219.402,446.502,597.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)375.05375.05375.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.926.526.93
LTM Dividend per Share0.540.540.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.926.526.93
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.467.067.47
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$72.41$90.35$110.78
Upside / Downside-22.96%-3.89%17.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,028.002,997.722,967.742,938.072,908.682,879.602,965.99
Payout Ratio6.70%23.36%40.02%56.68%73.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)203.00700.371,187.761,665.342,133.252,591.642,743.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)649.51656.13662.76
Year 2 PV (M)1,021.521,042.481,063.64
Year 3 PV (M)1,328.251,369.331,411.25
Year 4 PV (M)1,577.901,643.291,710.70
Year 5 PV (M)1,777.751,870.321,966.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)50,304.1052,923.5555,651.00
Equity Value (M)56,659.0359,505.1062,466.06
Shares Outstanding (M)375.05375.05375.05
Fair Value$151.07$158.66$166.56
Upside / Downside60.72%68.79%77.19%

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