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First Choice Bancorp (FCBP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.67 - $29.76$25.10
Multi-Stage$33.79 - $37.10$35.42
Blended Fair Value$30.26
Current Price$24.31
Upside24.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20202019201820172016201520142013
DPS0.00%0.00%1.000.850.650.490.000.000.070.030.000.00
YoY Growth--17.85%30.89%31.62%0.00%0.00%-100.00%104.64%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.11%5.65%3.01%1.82%0.00%0.00%0.25%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)34.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)22.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.834.272.56
Cash Retained (M)22.4322.4322.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.83-4.27-2.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.6018.1619.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.7011.7011.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.331.551.70
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.331.551.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.342.562.70
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$20.67$25.10$29.76
Upside / Downside-14.98%3.26%22.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)34.1633.8233.4833.1532.8232.4933.46
Payout Ratio34.34%45.47%56.60%67.74%78.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.7315.3818.9522.4525.8829.2430.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)13.9614.1014.24
Year 2 PV (M)15.6115.9316.25
Year 3 PV (M)16.7817.3017.83
Year 4 PV (M)17.5518.2819.03
Year 5 PV (M)18.0018.9319.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)313.35329.67346.66
Equity Value (M)395.25414.21433.93
Shares Outstanding (M)11.7011.7011.70
Fair Value$33.79$35.42$37.10
Upside / Downside39.02%45.68%52.62%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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