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Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation (COG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.34 - $29.29$24.71
Multi-Stage$34.09 - $37.38$35.71
Blended Fair Value$30.21
Current Price$22.25
Upside35.76%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202020192018201720162015201420132012
DPS0.00%0.00%0.820.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.70%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,181.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,139.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,042.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)436.40272.75163.65
Cash Retained (M)1,042.981,042.981,042.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-436.40-272.75-163.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)606.58770.23879.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)759.00759.00759.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.801.011.16
LTM Dividend per Share1.501.501.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.801.011.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.302.522.66
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$20.34$24.71$29.29
Upside / Downside-8.58%11.04%31.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,181.982,160.162,138.552,117.172,096.002,075.042,137.29
Payout Ratio52.20%59.76%67.32%74.88%82.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,139.001,290.921,439.681,585.341,727.941,867.531,976.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,171.501,183.461,195.41
Year 2 PV (M)1,185.651,209.971,234.54
Year 3 PV (M)1,184.841,221.481,258.87
Year 4 PV (M)1,171.961,220.531,270.60
Year 5 PV (M)1,149.471,209.321,271.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,013.8221,055.9922,141.13
Equity Value (M)25,877.2527,100.7628,372.19
Shares Outstanding (M)759.00759.00759.00
Fair Value$34.09$35.71$37.38
Upside / Downside53.23%60.48%68.00%

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