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Cinemark Holdings, Inc. (CNK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: EntertainmentSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.87 - $11.32$9.56
Multi-Stage$12.56 - $13.80$13.17
Blended Fair Value$11.36
Current Price$30.18
Upside-62.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.301.151.080.970.900.83
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-73.44%6.55%10.67%7.64%8.31%0.21%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.49%11.25%2.69%2.58%2.04%2.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)154.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)28.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)126.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30.9619.3511.61
Cash Retained (M)126.50126.50126.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-30.96-19.35-11.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)95.54107.15114.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)138.98138.98138.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.690.770.83
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.690.770.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.890.971.03
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.87$9.56$11.32
Upside / Downside-73.93%-68.34%-62.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)154.80153.25151.72150.20148.70147.21151.63
Payout Ratio18.28%32.63%46.97%61.31%75.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)28.3050.0071.2692.09112.50132.49140.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)45.3745.8346.29
Year 2 PV (M)58.6759.8761.09
Year 3 PV (M)68.7970.9273.09
Year 4 PV (M)76.2579.4182.67
Year 5 PV (M)81.4885.7290.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,414.521,488.181,564.87
Equity Value (M)1,745.081,829.941,918.16
Shares Outstanding (M)138.98138.98138.98
Fair Value$12.56$13.17$13.80
Upside / Downside-58.39%-56.37%-54.27%

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