Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings Co., Ltd. (9099.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$904.73 - $1,281.80$1,090.84
Multi-Stage$1,126.37 - $1,235.28$1,179.79
Blended Fair Value$1,135.32
Current Price$5,730.00
Upside-80.19%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS8.40%0.00%33.5330.4524.3324.4224.6422.4022.4924.8216.330.00
YoY Growth--10.12%25.14%-0.36%-0.89%10.02%-0.39%-9.40%52.02%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.59%2.41%2.30%1.45%1.56%1.63%1.69%1.87%1.53%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,084.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)209.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,875.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)616.80385.50231.30
Cash Retained (M)2,875.002,875.002,875.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-616.80-385.50-231.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,258.202,489.502,643.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22.7322.7322.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share99.37109.55116.33
LTM Dividend per Share9.209.209.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share99.37109.55116.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend108.57118.74125.53
WACC / Discount Rate11.46%11.46%11.46%
Growth Rate-0.48%0.52%1.52%
Fair Value$904.73$1,090.84$1,281.80
Upside / Downside-84.21%-80.96%-77.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,084.003,099.963,115.993,132.123,148.323,164.613,259.55
Payout Ratio6.78%23.42%40.07%56.71%73.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)209.00726.061,248.461,776.252,309.462,848.153,015.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.46%11.46%11.46%
Growth Rate-0.48%0.52%1.52%
Year 1 PV (M)644.93651.41657.89
Year 2 PV (M)985.051,004.951,025.04
Year 3 PV (M)1,244.881,282.791,321.46
Year 4 PV (M)1,437.731,496.401,556.84
Year 5 PV (M)1,574.971,655.711,739.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,709.7320,720.0921,771.48
Equity Value (M)25,597.3026,811.3528,072.43
Shares Outstanding (M)22.7322.7322.73
Fair Value$1,126.37$1,179.79$1,235.28
Upside / Downside-80.34%-79.41%-78.44%

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