Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China Railway Construction Heavy Industry Corporation Limited (688425.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.29 - $3.43$2.83
Multi-Stage$4.26 - $4.69$4.47
Blended Fair Value$3.65
Current Price$5.38
Upside-32.13%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-27.62%0.00%0.100.120.110.020.270.510.020.020.000.00
YoY Growth---14.24%6.92%583.47%-94.09%-46.35%2,098.85%9.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.39%2.98%2.09%0.37%3.32%6.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,482.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,450.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)296.50185.31111.19
Cash Retained (M)1,450.081,450.081,450.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-296.50-185.31-111.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,153.581,264.771,338.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,333.505,333.505,333.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.240.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.240.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.26
WACC / Discount Rate7.50%7.50%7.50%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.29$2.83$3.43
Upside / Downside-57.35%-47.33%-36.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,482.521,467.691,453.011,438.481,424.101,409.861,452.15
Payout Ratio2.19%19.75%37.31%54.88%72.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.43289.87542.16789.371,031.581,268.871,343.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.50%7.50%7.50%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)266.93269.66272.38
Year 2 PV (M)459.74469.17478.70
Year 3 PV (M)616.40635.46654.91
Year 4 PV (M)741.78772.53804.22
Year 5 PV (M)840.20883.96929.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,777.5320,807.3921,879.71
Equity Value (M)22,702.5923,838.1625,019.43
Shares Outstanding (M)5,333.505,333.505,333.50
Fair Value$4.26$4.47$4.69
Upside / Downside-20.88%-16.92%-12.81%

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