Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangsu Bide Science and Technology Co., Ltd. (605298.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$71.58 - $84.34$79.04
Multi-Stage$87.22 - $95.73$91.40
Blended Fair Value$85.22
Current Price$42.56
Upside100.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-16.60%23.57%0.100.120.240.240.220.250.110.170.080.03
YoY Growth---13.50%-51.25%0.00%6.67%-10.27%127.76%-35.56%104.04%147.05%178.03%
Dividend Yield--0.69%1.14%2.21%2.31%1.56%1.82%0.00%0.00%0.61%0.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)76.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)45.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.409.625.77
Cash Retained (M)45.5145.5145.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.40-9.62-5.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)30.1135.8839.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)181.54181.54181.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate-9.03%-9.03%-9.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$71.58$79.04$84.34
Upside / Downside68.20%85.71%98.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)76.9981.9987.3293.0099.04105.48108.64
Payout Ratio40.89%50.71%60.53%70.36%80.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31.4841.5852.8665.4379.4194.93100.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-9.03%-9.03%-9.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)45.2845.7146.14
Year 2 PV (M)62.6863.8765.07
Year 3 PV (M)84.4886.9089.37
Year 4 PV (M)111.64115.94120.35
Year 5 PV (M)145.33152.35159.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,384.7716,127.8616,899.39
Equity Value (M)15,834.1716,592.6217,379.96
Shares Outstanding (M)181.54181.54181.54
Fair Value$87.22$91.40$95.73
Upside / Downside104.93%114.75%124.94%

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