Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

GigaDevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc. (603986.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$81.99 - $404.01$173.49
Multi-Stage$43.97 - $48.12$46.00
Blended Fair Value$109.75
Current Price$213.30
Upside-48.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-30.02%4.31%0.020.631.070.400.190.140.140.080.000.02
YoY Growth---96.39%-41.07%166.27%111.48%39.95%-0.62%72.17%0.00%-100.00%45.32%
Dividend Yield--0.02%0.87%0.88%0.29%0.16%0.11%0.26%0.11%0.00%0.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,353.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)223.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,129.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)270.73169.21101.52
Cash Retained (M)1,129.701,129.701,129.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-270.73-169.21-101.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)858.96960.491,028.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)666.35666.35666.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.291.441.54
LTM Dividend per Share0.340.340.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.291.441.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.631.781.88
WACC / Discount Rate7.59%7.59%7.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$81.99$173.49$404.01
Upside / Downside-61.56%-18.66%89.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,353.661,441.651,535.351,635.151,741.441,854.631,910.27
Payout Ratio16.54%31.24%45.93%60.62%75.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)223.96450.31705.14991.201,311.461,669.171,767.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.59%7.59%7.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)414.61418.54422.47
Year 2 PV (M)597.76609.15620.64
Year 3 PV (M)773.64795.85818.48
Year 4 PV (M)942.45978.701,015.98
Year 5 PV (M)1,104.411,157.751,213.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,465.0226,694.9927,972.04
Equity Value (M)29,297.9030,654.9832,062.74
Shares Outstanding (M)666.35666.35666.35
Fair Value$43.97$46.00$48.12
Upside / Downside-79.39%-78.43%-77.44%

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