Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jinhua Chunguang Technology Co.,Ltd (603657.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consumer ElectronicsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.48 - $20.59$19.30
Multi-Stage$12.35 - $13.54$12.93
Blended Fair Value$16.12
Current Price$38.18
Upside-57.79%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-23.49%23.35%0.150.320.330.520.340.560.020.021.150.03
YoY Growth---54.21%-3.04%-37.00%51.72%-38.24%3,597.23%-27.42%-98.19%4,227.30%48.04%
Dividend Yield--0.87%2.42%1.96%2.90%1.76%3.49%0.06%0.11%6.05%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.891.801.08
Cash Retained (M)4.004.004.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.89-1.80-1.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.122.202.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)139.36139.36139.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.090.10
WACC / Discount Rate1.68%1.68%1.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17.48$19.30$20.59
Upside / Downside-54.22%-49.45%-46.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14.4315.3716.3717.4318.5619.7720.36
Payout Ratio72.25%75.80%79.35%82.90%86.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.4311.6512.9914.4516.0517.7918.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.68%1.68%1.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)11.3511.4611.57
Year 2 PV (M)12.3312.5612.80
Year 3 PV (M)13.3613.7514.14
Year 4 PV (M)14.4615.0215.59
Year 5 PV (M)15.6216.3717.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,653.371,733.231,816.15
Equity Value (M)1,720.491,802.391,887.39
Shares Outstanding (M)139.36139.36139.36
Fair Value$12.35$12.93$13.54
Upside / Downside-67.66%-66.13%-64.53%

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