Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Guangzhou Tongda Auto Electric Co., Ltd. (603390.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.46 - $32.40$30.34
Multi-Stage$17.50 - $19.34$18.40
Blended Fair Value$24.37
Current Price$12.65
Upside92.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS79.88%0.00%0.080.010.010.110.100.000.080.020.040.01
YoY Growth--1,405.18%-39.66%-91.92%4.84%2,346.21%-94.87%401.91%-61.91%272.41%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.77%0.06%0.12%1.36%1.02%0.03%0.56%0.11%0.29%0.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)63.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)49.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.767.974.78
Cash Retained (M)49.6249.6249.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.76-7.97-4.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)36.8641.6444.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)364.26364.26364.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate-2.30%-2.30%-2.30%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$27.46$30.34$32.40
Upside / Downside117.07%139.84%156.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)63.7963.1562.5261.8961.2860.6662.48
Payout Ratio22.22%35.77%49.33%62.89%76.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14.1722.5930.8438.9246.8454.6057.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-2.30%-2.30%-2.30%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)22.8923.1223.36
Year 2 PV (M)31.6632.3132.96
Year 3 PV (M)40.4841.7443.01
Year 4 PV (M)49.3651.4153.52
Year 5 PV (M)58.2961.3364.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,170.926,492.256,826.83
Equity Value (M)6,373.606,702.157,044.17
Shares Outstanding (M)364.26364.26364.26
Fair Value$17.50$18.40$19.34
Upside / Downside38.32%45.45%52.87%

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