Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

HMT (Xiamen) New Technical Materials Co., Ltd (603306.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42.77 - $161.58$125.49
Multi-Stage$19.79 - $21.66$20.71
Blended Fair Value$73.10
Current Price$56.06
Upside30.39%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-15.76%30.01%0.210.200.120.140.440.490.380.480.230.07
YoY Growth--6.83%68.44%-16.52%-68.63%-10.00%29.88%-21.30%109.92%214.42%382.02%
Dividend Yield--0.57%0.93%0.31%0.45%1.95%3.61%2.28%2.66%0.84%0.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)253.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)34.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)219.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)50.7631.7219.03
Cash Retained (M)219.18219.18219.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-50.76-31.72-19.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)168.42187.46200.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)312.37312.37312.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.540.600.64
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.540.600.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.710.75
WACC / Discount Rate7.10%7.10%7.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$42.77$125.49$161.58
Upside / Downside-23.71%123.85%188.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)253.79270.29287.86306.57326.50347.72358.15
Payout Ratio13.64%28.91%44.18%59.45%74.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)34.6178.14127.18182.27243.98312.95331.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.10%7.10%7.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)72.2772.9673.64
Year 2 PV (M)108.80110.87112.96
Year 3 PV (M)144.22148.36152.57
Year 4 PV (M)178.55185.42192.48
Year 5 PV (M)211.82222.05232.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,464.735,728.686,002.73
Equity Value (M)6,180.396,468.336,767.06
Shares Outstanding (M)312.37312.37312.37
Fair Value$19.79$20.71$21.66
Upside / Downside-64.71%-63.06%-61.36%

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