Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Bank of Chengdu Co., Ltd. (601838.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$532.34 - $627.19$587.77
Multi-Stage$161.42 - $177.07$169.10
Blended Fair Value$378.43
Current Price$17.25
Upside2,093.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.29%17.95%1.110.960.720.580.540.360.300.250.300.22
YoY Growth--16.38%32.34%25.15%7.12%49.52%19.97%19.76%-15.32%32.43%4.74%
Dividend Yield--6.48%6.98%5.34%3.85%4.79%4.80%3.30%2.27%2.95%2.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,312.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)469.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,842.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,662.541,664.09998.45
Cash Retained (M)12,842.8912,842.8912,842.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,662.54-1,664.09-998.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)10,180.3411,178.8011,844.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,221.324,221.324,221.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.412.652.81
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.412.652.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.522.762.92
WACC / Discount Rate5.02%5.02%5.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$532.34$587.77$627.19
Upside / Downside2,986.04%3,307.36%3,535.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,312.7214,178.0515,099.6216,081.1017,126.3718,239.5918,786.77
Payout Ratio3.53%20.82%38.12%55.41%72.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)469.842,952.355,755.608,910.8112,451.8716,415.6317,377.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.02%5.02%5.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,784.942,811.342,837.74
Year 2 PV (M)5,121.405,218.955,317.41
Year 3 PV (M)7,479.347,694.057,912.82
Year 4 PV (M)9,858.9310,238.0810,628.05
Year 5 PV (M)12,260.3112,852.4813,467.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)643,901.32675,001.99707,292.96
Equity Value (M)681,406.24713,816.89747,456.32
Shares Outstanding (M)4,221.324,221.324,221.32
Fair Value$161.42$169.10$177.07
Upside / Downside835.77%880.28%926.48%

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