Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jinling Hotel Corporation, Ltd. (601007.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.31 - $2.63$1.83
Multi-Stage$6.33 - $7.00$6.66
Blended Fair Value$4.24
Current Price$7.34
Upside-42.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.79%-0.26%0.150.130.100.060.030.190.250.150.120.14
YoY Growth--10.43%26.87%69.85%99.56%-83.53%-26.15%70.99%18.10%-9.67%-7.55%
Dividend Yield--2.17%1.85%1.04%0.88%0.51%3.01%3.12%1.81%1.12%1.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)31.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.303.942.36
Cash Retained (M)25.7325.7325.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.30-3.94-2.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)19.4221.7923.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)384.59384.59384.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.070.08
WACC / Discount Rate2.62%2.62%2.62%
Growth Rate-2.26%-1.26%-0.26%
Fair Value$1.31$1.83$2.63
Upside / Downside-82.11%-75.13%-64.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)31.5131.1230.7230.3429.9529.5830.46
Payout Ratio18.36%32.69%47.01%61.34%75.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.7810.1714.4418.6122.6726.6228.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.62%2.62%2.62%
Growth Rate-2.26%-1.26%-0.26%
Year 1 PV (M)9.819.9110.01
Year 2 PV (M)13.4413.7214.00
Year 3 PV (M)16.7017.2217.75
Year 4 PV (M)19.6220.4421.28
Year 5 PV (M)22.2323.3924.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,353.402,476.272,604.23
Equity Value (M)2,435.202,560.952,691.87
Shares Outstanding (M)384.59384.59384.59
Fair Value$6.33$6.66$7.00
Upside / Downside-13.73%-9.28%-4.64%

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