Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Guizhou Guihang Automotive Components Co.,Ltd (600523.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.13 - $4.52$3.81
Multi-Stage$8.15 - $8.99$8.56
Blended Fair Value$6.18
Current Price$14.58
Upside-57.58%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.05%-4.79%0.130.130.140.210.170.150.150.140.170.20
YoY Growth---0.68%-7.64%-33.50%19.84%11.26%2.36%7.56%-15.85%-18.12%-0.84%
Dividend Yield--1.00%1.03%0.93%0.89%1.16%1.19%1.22%1.14%1.05%1.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)178.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)64.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)113.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.7122.3213.39
Cash Retained (M)113.92113.92113.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.71-22.32-13.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)78.2191.60100.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)394.34394.34394.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.400.42
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-4.50%-3.50%-2.50%
Fair Value$3.13$3.81$4.52
Upside / Downside-78.51%-73.89%-69.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)178.55172.30166.26160.43154.81149.38153.87
Payout Ratio36.20%46.96%57.72%68.48%79.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)64.6380.9195.96109.86122.67134.45142.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-4.50%-3.50%-2.50%
Year 1 PV (M)75.1675.9476.73
Year 2 PV (M)82.8084.5586.31
Year 3 PV (M)88.0690.8593.71
Year 4 PV (M)91.3395.2299.23
Year 5 PV (M)92.9997.96103.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,782.742,931.523,086.60
Equity Value (M)3,213.083,376.043,545.72
Shares Outstanding (M)394.34394.34394.34
Fair Value$8.15$8.56$8.99
Upside / Downside-44.12%-41.28%-38.33%

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