Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Cangzhou Dahua Co., Ltd. (600230.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.97 - $3.65$2.66
Multi-Stage$2.10 - $2.30$2.20
Blended Fair Value$2.43
Current Price$12.30
Upside-80.27%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.56%-8.97%0.120.270.180.160.110.110.420.160.170.25
YoY Growth---53.18%50.94%11.05%44.66%-0.03%-73.49%161.66%-8.91%-31.25%-20.79%
Dividend Yield--1.24%2.40%1.02%1.00%1.02%1.34%2.02%0.53%1.04%2.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)54.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)42.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.836.774.06
Cash Retained (M)42.7442.7442.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.83-6.77-4.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.9235.9838.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)414.08414.08414.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate8.47%8.47%8.47%
Growth Rate2.99%3.99%4.99%
Fair Value$1.97$2.66$3.65
Upside / Downside-84.01%-78.40%-70.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)54.1356.2958.5360.8763.3065.8267.80
Payout Ratio21.03%34.82%48.62%62.41%76.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.3819.6028.4637.9948.2459.2462.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.47%8.47%8.47%
Growth Rate2.99%3.99%4.99%
Year 1 PV (M)17.9018.0718.24
Year 2 PV (M)23.7224.1924.65
Year 3 PV (M)28.9229.7730.64
Year 4 PV (M)33.5334.8536.21
Year 5 PV (M)37.5939.4641.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)727.86763.89801.33
Equity Value (M)869.52910.22952.47
Shares Outstanding (M)414.08414.08414.08
Fair Value$2.10$2.20$2.30
Upside / Downside-82.93%-82.13%-81.30%

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