Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Phenix Optical Company Limited (600071.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: LeisureSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.56 - $45.39$42.54
Multi-Stage$6.04 - $6.61$6.32
Blended Fair Value$24.43
Current Price$23.85
Upside2.44%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS48.23%25.23%0.080.090.080.060.050.010.010.020.010.02
YoY Growth---10.50%20.99%34.09%16.46%323.21%-12.29%-37.28%42.48%-39.28%178.38%
Dividend Yield--0.40%0.48%0.36%0.16%0.37%0.13%0.10%0.13%0.07%0.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)62.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)47.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.577.854.71
Cash Retained (M)47.8147.8147.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.57-7.85-4.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)35.2439.9643.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)275.24275.24275.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.56$42.54$45.39
Upside / Downside-38.93%78.37%90.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)62.8366.9171.2675.8980.8286.0888.66
Payout Ratio23.90%37.12%50.34%63.56%76.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.0224.8435.8748.2462.0677.4782.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)23.0323.2523.47
Year 2 PV (M)30.8531.4432.03
Year 3 PV (M)38.4739.5740.70
Year 4 PV (M)45.8947.6649.47
Year 5 PV (M)53.1355.6958.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,471.271,542.331,616.11
Equity Value (M)1,662.641,739.941,820.14
Shares Outstanding (M)275.24275.24275.24
Fair Value$6.04$6.32$6.61
Upside / Downside-74.67%-73.49%-72.27%

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