Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhejiang Sf Oilless Bearing Co.,Ltd. (300817.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.67 - $58.58$54.90
Multi-Stage$8.57 - $9.37$8.97
Blended Fair Value$31.93
Current Price$20.68
Upside54.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.26%15.33%0.210.180.160.130.100.090.080.060.040.05
YoY Growth--14.03%15.94%19.26%36.11%3.32%11.59%40.57%49.61%-13.77%-7.20%
Dividend Yield--0.82%1.74%1.38%1.29%0.95%0.84%0.55%0.39%0.00%0.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)64.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)44.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)19.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.868.044.82
Cash Retained (M)19.8819.8819.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.86-8.04-4.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.0211.8415.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)218.29218.29218.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.260.27
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$22.67$54.90$58.58
Upside / Downside9.62%165.46%183.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)64.3068.4872.9377.6782.7288.0990.74
Payout Ratio69.08%73.27%77.45%81.63%85.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)44.4250.1756.4863.4070.9979.2883.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)46.6347.0747.51
Year 2 PV (M)48.7849.7150.65
Year 3 PV (M)50.8952.3553.83
Year 4 PV (M)52.9454.9857.07
Year 5 PV (M)54.9557.6160.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,617.451,695.571,776.69
Equity Value (M)1,871.641,957.282,046.11
Shares Outstanding (M)218.29218.29218.29
Fair Value$8.57$8.97$9.37
Upside / Downside-58.54%-56.64%-54.68%

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