Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Berhad (2836.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.13 - $17.33$13.99
Multi-Stage$26.97 - $29.64$28.28
Blended Fair Value$21.13
Current Price$16.46
Upside28.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-6.45%0.00%0.730.871.090.500.621.020.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---16.09%-20.18%118.00%-19.87%-38.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.85%4.71%5.06%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)358.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)308.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)49.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)71.6644.7826.87
Cash Retained (M)49.4749.4749.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-71.66-44.78-26.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)-22.194.6922.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)305.74305.74305.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.070.020.07
LTM Dividend per Share1.011.011.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.070.020.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.941.031.08
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$11.13$13.99$17.33
Upside / Downside-32.40%-15.01%5.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)358.28354.69351.15347.63344.16340.72350.94
Payout Ratio86.19%86.95%87.72%88.48%89.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)308.81308.42308.01307.58307.12306.65324.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)287.33290.26293.19
Year 2 PV (M)267.32272.81278.34
Year 3 PV (M)248.69256.38264.23
Year 4 PV (M)231.34240.93250.81
Year 5 PV (M)215.19226.39238.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,995.337,359.597,738.87
Equity Value (M)8,245.208,646.369,063.51
Shares Outstanding (M)305.74305.74305.74
Fair Value$26.97$28.28$29.64
Upside / Downside63.84%71.81%80.10%

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