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Genuine Parts Company (0IUX.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$76.07 - $131.60$99.93
Multi-Stage$87.50 - $95.52$91.43
Blended Fair Value$95.68
Current Price$138.60
Upside-30.96%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.80%4.80%3.983.783.563.343.253.152.992.842.782.64
YoY Growth--5.37%6.20%6.50%2.73%3.28%5.51%5.19%2.23%5.04%6.05%
Dividend Yield--3.34%2.45%2.13%2.65%2.82%4.68%2.64%3.16%3.01%2.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)808.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)564.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)244.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)161.70101.0660.64
Cash Retained (M)244.39244.39244.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-161.70-101.06-60.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)82.69143.33183.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)139.27139.27139.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.591.031.32
LTM Dividend per Share4.054.054.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.591.031.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.645.085.37
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate2.80%3.80%4.80%
Fair Value$76.07$99.93$131.60
Upside / Downside-45.12%-27.90%-5.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)808.50839.25871.17904.31938.71974.411,003.65
Payout Ratio69.77%73.82%77.86%81.91%85.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)564.11619.52678.32740.71806.86876.97928.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate2.80%3.80%4.80%
Year 1 PV (M)562.47567.95573.42
Year 2 PV (M)559.16570.10581.13
Year 3 PV (M)554.37570.71587.36
Year 4 PV (M)548.28569.93592.21
Year 5 PV (M)541.05567.89595.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,420.489,887.6610,373.19
Equity Value (M)12,185.8312,734.2213,303.08
Shares Outstanding (M)139.27139.27139.27
Fair Value$87.50$91.43$95.52
Upside / Downside-36.87%-34.03%-31.08%

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