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Shanghai Industrial Holdings Limited (0363.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$54.45 - $86.21$68.95
Multi-Stage$120.32 - $132.47$126.28
Blended Fair Value$97.61
Current Price$13.56
Upside619.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.57%0.48%0.940.920.961.000.740.520.960.990.961.05
YoY Growth--2.17%-4.17%-4.00%35.14%42.31%-45.83%-2.81%3.11%-9.10%17.58%
Dividend Yield--7.94%9.49%9.95%8.80%6.98%3.47%6.06%4.37%4.56%5.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,897.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,064.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,833.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,179.49737.18442.31
Cash Retained (M)3,833.163,833.163,833.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,179.49-737.18-442.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,653.673,095.983,390.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,087.211,087.211,087.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.442.853.12
LTM Dividend per Share1.901.901.90
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.442.853.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.344.755.02
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-1.52%-0.52%0.48%
Fair Value$54.45$68.95$86.21
Upside / Downside301.58%408.47%535.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,897.455,866.605,835.925,805.405,775.045,744.835,917.18
Payout Ratio35.00%46.00%57.00%68.00%79.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,064.292,698.783,326.583,947.744,562.315,170.355,473.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-1.52%-0.52%0.48%
Year 1 PV (M)2,512.732,538.242,563.76
Year 2 PV (M)2,883.722,942.593,002.04
Year 3 PV (M)3,186.263,284.323,384.36
Year 4 PV (M)3,428.433,569.823,715.55
Year 5 PV (M)3,617.493,804.934,000.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)115,180.37121,148.44127,361.37
Equity Value (M)130,809.00137,288.34144,027.15
Shares Outstanding (M)1,087.211,087.211,087.21
Fair Value$120.32$126.28$132.47
Upside / Downside787.29%831.24%876.95%

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