Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Johnson Electric Holdings Limited (0179.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$46.40 - $54.70$51.25
Multi-Stage$34.49 - $37.94$36.19
Blended Fair Value$43.72
Current Price$5.23
Upside735.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS23.00%2.90%0.080.060.010.060.020.030.050.060.060.06
YoY Growth--37.63%322.35%-77.07%218.15%-33.59%-40.81%-23.30%1.99%1.84%0.20%
Dividend Yield--3.85%3.75%1.04%4.47%0.71%1.55%2.13%2.08%1.71%2.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)262.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)72.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)190.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)52.5632.8519.71
Cash Retained (M)190.58190.58190.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-52.56-32.85-19.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)138.02157.73170.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)933.25933.25933.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.170.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.170.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate-1.44%-1.44%-1.44%
Growth Rate2.99%3.99%4.99%
Fair Value$46.40$51.25$54.70
Upside / Downside787.25%879.85%945.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)262.80273.29284.19295.53307.33319.59329.18
Payout Ratio27.48%39.98%52.49%64.99%77.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)72.22109.27149.17192.08238.17287.63304.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.44%-1.44%-1.44%
Growth Rate2.99%3.99%4.99%
Year 1 PV (M)109.81110.87111.94
Year 2 PV (M)150.63153.57156.54
Year 3 PV (M)194.90200.63206.48
Year 4 PV (M)242.85252.42262.27
Year 5 PV (M)294.71309.30324.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)31,198.7532,743.0934,348.00
Equity Value (M)32,191.6433,769.8935,409.68
Shares Outstanding (M)933.25933.25933.25
Fair Value$34.49$36.19$37.94
Upside / Downside559.54%591.88%625.48%

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