Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Guoco Group Limited (0053.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.46 - $52.75$41.56
Multi-Stage$67.21 - $73.99$70.53
Blended Fair Value$56.05
Current Price$9.00
Upside522.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.380.260.260.260.510.510.510.520.52
YoY Growth---100.00%50.87%-0.49%-0.64%-49.62%0.31%-0.14%-0.82%-0.09%0.15%
Dividend Yield--0.00%4.36%3.40%2.54%2.24%3.58%3.27%3.40%4.50%4.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)972.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)237.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)734.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)194.41121.5172.90
Cash Retained (M)734.10734.10734.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-194.41-121.51-72.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)539.69612.59661.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)325.22325.22325.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.661.882.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.730.730.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.661.882.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.392.622.76
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-0.95%0.05%1.05%
Fair Value$32.46$41.56$52.75
Upside / Downside260.69%361.78%486.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)972.05972.52972.99973.46973.93974.401,003.63
Payout Ratio24.48%37.58%50.69%63.79%76.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)237.95365.50493.18620.98748.91876.96928.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-0.95%0.05%1.05%
Year 1 PV (M)340.26343.70347.13
Year 2 PV (M)427.42436.10444.86
Year 3 PV (M)501.02516.35531.99
Year 4 PV (M)562.51585.57609.33
Year 5 PV (M)613.20644.78677.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,412.4620,412.4021,453.12
Equity Value (M)21,856.8722,938.8924,064.09
Shares Outstanding (M)325.22325.22325.22
Fair Value$67.21$70.53$73.99
Upside / Downside646.73%683.69%722.14%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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