Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Beijing Beimo High-tech Frictional Material Co.,Ltd (002985.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.23 - $1.75$1.48
Multi-Stage$1.93 - $2.12$2.02
Blended Fair Value$1.75
Current Price$29.21
Upside-94.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.420.000.150.140.450.000.030.170.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%11.39%-69.54%0.00%-100.00%-80.53%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.66%0.00%0.33%0.25%0.68%0.00%0.22%1.15%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)60.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)39.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.097.564.53
Cash Retained (M)39.0239.0239.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.09-7.56-4.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.9331.4634.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)332.40332.40332.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate9.61%9.61%9.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.23$1.48$1.75
Upside / Downside-95.80%-94.92%-94.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)60.4459.8459.2458.6558.0657.4859.21
Payout Ratio35.45%46.36%57.27%68.18%79.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21.4227.7433.9339.9945.9251.7354.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.61%9.61%9.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)25.0525.3125.56
Year 2 PV (M)27.6728.2428.81
Year 3 PV (M)29.4530.3631.29
Year 4 PV (M)30.5531.8233.12
Year 5 PV (M)31.0832.7034.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)497.93523.85550.85
Equity Value (M)641.73672.28704.03
Shares Outstanding (M)332.40332.40332.40
Fair Value$1.93$2.02$2.12
Upside / Downside-93.39%-93.08%-92.75%

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