Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Baiyang Investment Group, Inc. (002696.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.76 - $2.96$2.29
Multi-Stage$3.55 - $3.90$3.72
Blended Fair Value$3.00
Current Price$6.22
Upside-51.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-17.19%7.40%0.100.090.110.130.160.270.330.210.120.16
YoY Growth--10.54%-14.39%-17.49%-15.70%-40.84%-18.08%53.18%81.11%-28.24%221.35%
Dividend Yield--2.02%1.74%1.63%2.17%2.92%4.03%3.73%1.80%0.90%1.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)51.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.296.433.86
Cash Retained (M)24.5024.5024.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.29-6.43-3.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.2118.0720.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)345.80345.80345.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-0.41%0.59%1.59%
Fair Value$1.76$2.29$2.96
Upside / Downside-71.63%-63.18%-52.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)51.4651.7652.0752.3852.6953.0054.59
Payout Ratio52.38%59.91%67.43%74.95%82.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.9631.0135.1139.2643.4547.7050.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-0.41%0.59%1.59%
Year 1 PV (M)28.8829.1729.46
Year 2 PV (M)30.4531.0731.69
Year 3 PV (M)31.7132.6733.66
Year 4 PV (M)32.6934.0235.39
Year 5 PV (M)33.4135.1336.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,068.721,123.461,180.43
Equity Value (M)1,225.861,285.521,347.53
Shares Outstanding (M)345.80345.80345.80
Fair Value$3.55$3.72$3.90
Upside / Downside-43.01%-40.23%-37.35%

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