Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

LanZhou Foci Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd. (002644.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.54 - $23.02$21.58
Multi-Stage$4.37 - $4.80$4.58
Blended Fair Value$13.08
Current Price$8.61
Upside51.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.17%9.58%0.030.050.010.120.060.010.010.010.010.01
YoY Growth---42.90%293.89%-88.45%100.51%361.54%0.00%8.33%33.17%10.96%-35.09%
Dividend Yield--0.39%0.67%0.12%1.06%0.84%0.15%0.14%0.11%0.08%0.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)59.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)52.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.827.384.43
Cash Retained (M)52.6252.6252.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.82-7.38-4.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)40.8145.2448.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)510.29510.29510.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate5.70%5.70%5.70%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$19.54$21.58$23.02
Upside / Downside126.98%150.61%167.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)59.0862.9267.0171.3676.0080.9483.37
Payout Ratio10.93%26.74%42.56%58.37%74.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.4516.8228.5241.6656.3872.8577.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.70%5.70%5.70%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)15.7715.9216.07
Year 2 PV (M)25.0425.5226.00
Year 3 PV (M)34.2835.2736.27
Year 4 PV (M)43.4945.1646.88
Year 5 PV (M)52.6655.2057.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,061.272,160.832,264.20
Equity Value (M)2,232.522,337.912,447.27
Shares Outstanding (M)510.29510.29510.29
Fair Value$4.37$4.58$4.80
Upside / Downside-49.19%-46.79%-44.30%

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