Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Goldenmax International Technology Ltd. (002636.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.23 - $29.73$27.86
Multi-Stage$19.65 - $21.60$20.61
Blended Fair Value$24.23
Current Price$12.25
Upside97.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS64.66%10.03%0.060.080.080.060.010.000.000.060.000.00
YoY Growth---29.36%0.00%41.67%609.28%70.55%0.00%-100.00%66,649.90%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.69%1.18%0.88%0.56%0.08%0.06%0.00%0.49%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)110.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)64.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.1113.828.29
Cash Retained (M)64.5164.5164.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.11-13.82-8.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)42.4050.6956.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)729.15729.15729.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate-1.56%-1.56%-1.56%
Growth Rate4.00%5.00%6.00%
Fair Value$25.23$27.86$29.73
Upside / Downside105.94%127.41%142.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)110.55116.07121.87127.96134.36141.07145.30
Payout Ratio41.65%51.32%60.99%70.66%80.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46.0459.5674.3390.42107.93126.96134.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.56%-1.56%-1.56%
Growth Rate4.00%5.00%6.00%
Year 1 PV (M)59.9360.5161.09
Year 2 PV (M)75.2576.7078.17
Year 3 PV (M)92.1194.7997.52
Year 4 PV (M)110.63114.95119.39
Year 5 PV (M)130.95137.37144.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,862.2914,541.7015,247.50
Equity Value (M)14,331.1515,026.0215,747.70
Shares Outstanding (M)729.15729.15729.15
Fair Value$19.65$20.61$21.60
Upside / Downside60.45%68.22%76.30%

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