Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Offcn Education Technology Co., Ltd. (002607.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.04 - $0.05$0.04
Multi-Stage$0.29 - $0.33$0.31
Blended Fair Value$0.18
Current Price$2.76
Upside-93.63%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-40.82%2.32%0.020.000.010.030.270.250.000.040.020.00
YoY Growth--511.24%-65.26%-73.42%-88.11%8.13%16,738.25%-96.22%142.45%2,203.49%-95.12%
Dividend Yield--0.57%0.10%0.17%0.57%0.95%1.10%0.01%1.04%0.30%0.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)107.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)67.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)39.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.5013.448.06
Cash Retained (M)39.7839.7839.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.50-13.44-8.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.2826.3431.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,167.406,167.406,167.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.010.020.02
WACC / Discount Rate4.29%4.29%4.29%
Growth Rate-24.13%-23.13%-22.13%
Fair Value$0.04$0.04$0.05
Upside / Downside-98.65%-98.45%-98.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)107.4982.6263.5148.8237.5228.8429.71
Payout Ratio62.99%68.39%73.80%79.20%84.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)67.7156.5146.8738.6631.7425.9627.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.29%4.29%4.29%
Growth Rate-24.13%-23.13%-22.13%
Year 1 PV (M)53.4854.1954.89
Year 2 PV (M)41.9843.0944.22
Year 3 PV (M)32.7734.0835.43
Year 4 PV (M)25.4726.8428.26
Year 5 PV (M)19.7121.0422.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,617.671,727.131,842.44
Equity Value (M)1,791.071,906.362,027.68
Shares Outstanding (M)6,167.406,167.406,167.40
Fair Value$0.29$0.31$0.33
Upside / Downside-89.48%-88.80%-88.09%

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