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Nanjing Xinlian Electronics Co., Ltd (002546.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.59 - $20.79$15.45
Multi-Stage$18.77 - $20.62$19.68
Blended Fair Value$17.56
Current Price$5.90
Upside197.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.10%4.04%0.120.120.120.120.010.120.120.010.090.10
YoY Growth--0.02%0.01%-0.06%764.67%-88.49%-2.09%807.19%-85.37%-2.77%18.16%
Dividend Yield--2.53%2.80%2.93%2.71%0.36%2.92%2.10%0.28%1.28%0.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)699.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)200.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)498.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)139.8187.3852.43
Cash Retained (M)498.48498.48498.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-139.81-87.38-52.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)358.67411.10446.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)834.19834.19834.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.430.490.53
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.430.490.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.670.730.78
WACC / Discount Rate6.65%6.65%6.65%
Growth Rate0.82%1.82%2.82%
Fair Value$11.59$15.45$20.79
Upside / Downside96.40%161.83%252.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)699.03711.77724.73737.94751.38765.07788.02
Payout Ratio28.69%40.95%53.21%65.48%77.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)200.56291.49385.66483.17584.11688.56728.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.65%6.65%6.65%
Growth Rate0.82%1.82%2.82%
Year 1 PV (M)270.61273.30275.98
Year 2 PV (M)332.41339.04345.73
Year 3 PV (M)386.64398.26410.11
Year 4 PV (M)433.94451.41469.41
Year 5 PV (M)474.91498.94523.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,756.9014,452.8115,176.60
Equity Value (M)15,655.4216,413.7517,201.75
Shares Outstanding (M)834.19834.19834.19
Fair Value$18.77$19.68$20.62
Upside / Downside218.09%233.50%249.51%

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