Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

C&S Paper Co.,Ltd (002511.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.73 - $4.88$3.63
Multi-Stage$3.25 - $3.57$3.40
Blended Fair Value$3.52
Current Price$8.24
Upside-57.30%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS29.38%2.24%0.080.060.100.100.080.020.060.040.020.00
YoY Growth--32.69%-36.81%-0.10%31.35%229.50%-60.71%49.85%100.56%520.60%-95.30%
Dividend Yield--1.29%0.74%0.82%0.83%0.29%0.14%0.60%0.45%0.27%0.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)253.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)229.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)50.7631.7219.03
Cash Retained (M)229.51229.51229.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-50.76-31.72-19.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)178.75197.78210.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,295.711,295.711,295.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.150.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.150.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate8.07%8.07%8.07%
Growth Rate2.20%3.20%4.20%
Fair Value$2.73$3.63$4.88
Upside / Downside-66.88%-55.91%-40.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)253.78261.90270.29278.94287.87297.08305.99
Payout Ratio9.57%25.65%41.74%57.83%73.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.2867.18112.82161.30212.77267.37283.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.07%8.07%8.07%
Growth Rate2.20%3.20%4.20%
Year 1 PV (M)61.5762.1762.77
Year 2 PV (M)94.7396.6098.48
Year 3 PV (M)124.12127.80131.55
Year 4 PV (M)150.03155.99162.13
Year 5 PV (M)172.77181.39190.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,607.813,787.813,974.91
Equity Value (M)4,211.034,411.754,620.19
Shares Outstanding (M)1,295.711,295.711,295.71
Fair Value$3.25$3.40$3.57
Upside / Downside-60.56%-58.68%-56.73%

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