Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Tianjin Motor Dies Co.,Ltd. (002510.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.32 - $10.99$10.29
Multi-Stage$6.49 - $7.14$6.81
Blended Fair Value$8.55
Current Price$7.40
Upside15.56%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.48%4.28%0.070.040.020.030.070.110.080.050.060.06
YoY Growth--108.34%71.91%-22.75%-63.49%-32.90%43.59%41.80%-6.10%3.44%13.50%
Dividend Yield--1.39%0.80%0.54%0.72%1.84%2.20%1.52%0.92%0.94%0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)56.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)21.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.387.114.27
Cash Retained (M)21.4021.4021.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.38-7.11-4.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)10.0214.2917.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)999.55999.55999.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.050.05
WACC / Discount Rate-0.56%-0.56%-0.56%
Growth Rate2.28%3.28%4.28%
Fair Value$9.32$10.29$10.99
Upside / Downside25.93%39.08%48.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)56.9258.7960.7262.7164.7766.9068.91
Payout Ratio62.40%67.92%73.44%78.96%84.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35.5239.9344.5949.5254.7260.2163.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.56%-0.56%-0.56%
Growth Rate2.28%3.28%4.28%
Year 1 PV (M)39.7640.1540.54
Year 2 PV (M)44.2245.0945.97
Year 3 PV (M)48.9050.3551.83
Year 4 PV (M)53.8255.9558.15
Year 5 PV (M)58.9761.9164.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,242.516,553.686,877.15
Equity Value (M)6,488.186,807.147,138.60
Shares Outstanding (M)999.55999.55999.55
Fair Value$6.49$6.81$7.14
Upside / Downside-12.28%-7.97%-3.49%

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