Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Guangdong Orient Zirconic Ind Sci & Tech Co.,Ltd (002167.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$53.84 - $63.48$59.47
Multi-Stage$75.40 - $83.09$79.17
Blended Fair Value$69.32
Current Price$14.34
Upside383.40%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-25.73%-15.06%0.030.050.020.050.100.130.130.170.140.11
YoY Growth---39.10%94.67%-49.89%-50.74%-22.80%-3.24%-20.88%18.49%32.29%-27.85%
Dividend Yield--0.32%0.69%0.32%0.71%1.89%2.19%1.75%1.83%1.23%1.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)256.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)244.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)51.3732.1019.26
Cash Retained (M)244.96244.96244.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-51.37-32.10-19.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)193.59212.85225.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)774.20774.20774.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.270.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.270.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate-14.35%-14.35%-14.35%
Growth Rate1.44%2.44%3.44%
Fair Value$53.84$59.47$63.48
Upside / Downside275.47%314.71%342.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)256.84263.10269.51276.08282.81289.70298.39
Payout Ratio4.63%21.70%38.78%55.85%72.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.8857.09104.50154.19206.24260.73276.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-14.35%-14.35%-14.35%
Growth Rate1.44%2.44%3.44%
Year 1 PV (M)66.0166.6667.31
Year 2 PV (M)139.69142.46145.26
Year 3 PV (M)238.30245.42252.68
Year 4 PV (M)368.52383.27398.45
Year 5 PV (M)538.65565.73593.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)57,022.3559,889.0462,869.88
Equity Value (M)58,373.5361,292.5864,327.46
Shares Outstanding (M)774.20774.20774.20
Fair Value$75.40$79.17$83.09
Upside / Downside425.79%452.08%479.42%

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