Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Guangdong Ganhua Science and Industry Co., Ltd. (000576.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.91 - $1.23$1.08
Multi-Stage$1.55 - $1.72$1.63
Blended Fair Value$1.35
Current Price$10.73
Upside-87.38%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-27.14%0.000.000.000.210.010.000.020.000.040.06
YoY Growth--136.32%-47.86%-99.54%2,672.05%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%-34.60%111.29%
Dividend Yield--0.02%0.01%0.01%1.72%0.07%0.00%0.19%0.00%0.24%0.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)78.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)77.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.609.755.85
Cash Retained (M)77.8177.8177.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.60-9.75-5.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)62.2168.0671.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)398.27398.27398.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.170.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.170.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate9.75%9.75%9.75%
Growth Rate-6.33%-5.33%-4.33%
Fair Value$0.91$1.08$1.23
Upside / Downside-91.50%-89.98%-88.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)78.0273.8669.9266.1962.6659.3261.10
Payout Ratio0.26%18.21%36.16%54.10%72.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.2013.4525.2835.8145.1553.3856.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.75%9.75%9.75%
Growth Rate-6.33%-5.33%-4.33%
Year 1 PV (M)12.1212.2512.38
Year 2 PV (M)20.5520.9921.43
Year 3 PV (M)26.2427.0927.95
Year 4 PV (M)29.8231.1132.45
Year 5 PV (M)31.7933.5235.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)498.32525.50553.84
Equity Value (M)618.84650.46683.39
Shares Outstanding (M)398.27398.27398.27
Fair Value$1.55$1.63$1.72
Upside / Downside-85.52%-84.78%-84.01%

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