Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Bingshan Refrigeration & Heat Transfer Technologies Co., Ltd. (000530.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.10 - $26.04$24.40
Multi-Stage$15.19 - $16.68$15.92
Blended Fair Value$20.16
Current Price$6.11
Upside229.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.88%0.10%0.070.050.040.030.060.070.070.090.050.07
YoY Growth--36.61%36.33%23.85%-47.52%-20.94%-0.29%-15.89%71.77%-30.28%5.04%
Dividend Yield--1.21%1.13%0.81%0.66%1.45%1.97%1.49%1.68%0.63%1.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)106.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)90.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.2113.267.95
Cash Retained (M)90.0690.0690.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.21-13.26-7.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)68.8576.8082.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)809.98809.98809.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate2.02%2.02%2.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$22.10$24.40$26.04
Upside / Downside261.73%299.39%326.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)106.05112.95120.29128.11136.43145.30149.66
Payout Ratio15.08%30.07%45.05%60.03%75.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.9933.9654.1976.91102.35130.77138.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.02%2.02%2.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)32.9733.2833.60
Year 2 PV (M)51.0952.0653.04
Year 3 PV (M)70.4072.4274.48
Year 4 PV (M)90.9794.4798.07
Year 5 PV (M)112.86118.31123.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,947.4412,524.5113,123.66
Equity Value (M)12,305.7312,895.0513,506.82
Shares Outstanding (M)809.98809.98809.98
Fair Value$15.19$15.92$16.68
Upside / Downside148.65%160.56%172.92%

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