Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shangri-La Hotel Public Company Limited (SHANG.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.90 - $43.63$32.09
Multi-Stage$131.08 - $144.98$137.89
Blended Fair Value$84.99
Current Price$53.50
Upside58.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.97%-3.97%1.000.000.000.002.242.242.241.991.990.75
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%12.50%0.00%166.67%-50.00%
Dividend Yield--2.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%4.25%3.46%2.64%2.86%2.89%1.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)228.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)130.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)98.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)45.6728.5417.13
Cash Retained (M)98.3598.3598.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-45.67-28.54-17.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)52.6869.8081.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)130.46130.46130.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.540.62
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.540.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.401.531.62
WACC / Discount Rate2.28%2.28%2.28%
Growth Rate-3.38%-2.38%-1.38%
Fair Value$23.90$32.09$43.63
Upside / Downside-55.32%-40.03%-18.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)228.35222.90217.59212.41207.35202.40208.48
Payout Ratio56.93%63.54%70.16%76.77%83.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)130.00141.64152.66163.07172.90182.16192.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.28%2.28%2.28%
Growth Rate-3.38%-2.38%-1.38%
Year 1 PV (M)137.07138.49139.91
Year 2 PV (M)142.96145.94148.94
Year 3 PV (M)147.78152.42157.15
Year 4 PV (M)151.63158.01164.58
Year 5 PV (M)154.60162.77171.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,366.5317,231.2318,132.09
Equity Value (M)17,100.5917,988.8618,913.97
Shares Outstanding (M)130.46130.46130.46
Fair Value$131.08$137.89$144.98
Upside / Downside145.01%157.74%171.00%

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