Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

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Ticker

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The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (PNC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$388.57 - $1,042.45$596.22
Multi-Stage$269.91 - $294.64$282.05
Blended Fair Value$439.13
Current Price$200.93
Upside118.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.01%9.76%6.386.196.025.174.984.774.033.182.672.61
YoY Growth--3.09%2.93%16.29%3.84%4.49%18.36%26.46%19.32%2.22%3.80%
Dividend Yield--3.63%3.87%4.73%2.80%2.84%4.98%3.17%2.11%2.22%3.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,526.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,603.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,923.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,305.20815.75489.45
Cash Retained (M)3,923.003,923.003,923.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,305.20-815.75-489.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,617.803,107.253,433.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)397.50397.50397.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.597.828.64
LTM Dividend per Share6.556.556.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.597.828.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend13.1314.3715.19
WACC / Discount Rate9.07%9.07%9.07%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$388.57$596.22$1,042.45
Upside / Downside93.38%196.73%418.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,526.006,950.197,401.957,883.088,395.488,941.199,209.42
Payout Ratio39.89%49.91%59.93%69.95%79.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,603.003,468.794,436.145,514.586,714.488,047.078,518.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.07%9.07%9.07%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,150.593,180.453,210.31
Year 2 PV (M)3,659.583,729.293,799.65
Year 3 PV (M)4,131.924,250.544,371.40
Year 4 PV (M)4,569.474,745.204,925.94
Year 5 PV (M)4,973.985,214.225,463.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)86,803.0090,995.6195,348.69
Equity Value (M)107,288.53112,115.30117,119.66
Shares Outstanding (M)397.50397.50397.50
Fair Value$269.91$282.05$294.64
Upside / Downside34.33%40.37%46.64%

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