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LH Shopping Centers Leasehold Real Estate Investment Trust (LHSC.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.54 - $54.13$38.03
Multi-Stage$42.13 - $46.21$44.13
Blended Fair Value$41.08
Current Price$12.20
Upside236.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.54%0.00%0.720.530.240.090.290.600.560.580.670.25
YoY Growth--35.85%121.05%153.33%-67.03%-52.55%6.56%-2.07%-13.95%165.67%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.92%5.32%2.09%0.93%2.50%4.66%3.32%3.90%4.75%1.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,318.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)779.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)539.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)263.76164.8598.91
Cash Retained (M)539.47539.47539.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-263.76-164.85-98.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)275.71374.62440.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)778.06778.06778.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.480.57
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.480.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.361.481.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate1.49%2.49%3.49%
Fair Value$27.54$38.03$54.13
Upside / Downside125.72%211.68%343.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,318.811,351.591,385.181,419.621,454.901,491.071,535.80
Payout Ratio59.09%65.28%71.46%77.64%83.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)779.34882.25989.801,102.161,219.481,341.961,420.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate1.49%2.49%3.49%
Year 1 PV (M)820.46828.54836.63
Year 2 PV (M)856.00872.95890.07
Year 3 PV (M)886.40912.86939.84
Year 4 PV (M)912.06948.54986.11
Year 5 PV (M)933.36980.261,029.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,368.8129,794.3031,276.53
Equity Value (M)32,777.0834,337.4535,958.20
Shares Outstanding (M)778.06778.06778.06
Fair Value$42.13$44.13$46.21
Upside / Downside245.30%261.74%278.81%

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