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PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Timur Tbk (BJTM.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,367.57 - $2,556.03$1,852.45
Multi-Stage$1,963.92 - $2,152.63$2,056.49
Blended Fair Value$1,954.47
Current Price$500.00
Upside290.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.61%3.03%54.3953.0952.1148.8548.2045.5443.9843.4442.7241.59
YoY Growth--2.45%1.88%6.67%1.35%5.83%3.56%1.25%1.67%2.72%3.07%
Dividend Yield--10.88%8.85%7.09%6.18%6.14%10.40%6.71%6.89%6.19%8.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,368,464.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)821,498.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)546,966.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)273,692.80171,058.00102,634.80
Cash Retained (M)546,966.00546,966.00546,966.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-273,692.80-171,058.00-102,634.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)273,273.20375,908.00444,331.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15,015.5015,015.5015,015.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share18.2025.0329.59
LTM Dividend per Share54.7154.7154.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share18.2025.0329.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend72.9179.7484.30
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate1.61%2.61%3.61%
Fair Value$1,367.57$1,852.45$2,556.03
Upside / Downside173.51%270.49%411.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,368,464.001,404,233.201,440,937.351,478,600.881,517,248.871,556,907.041,603,614.25
Payout Ratio60.03%66.02%72.02%78.01%84.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)821,498.00927,138.371,037,739.991,153,490.041,274,582.091,401,216.341,483,343.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate1.61%2.61%3.61%
Year 1 PV (M)857,790.57866,232.24874,673.91
Year 2 PV (M)888,304.74905,874.70923,616.73
Year 3 PV (M)913,532.47940,769.48968,542.56
Year 4 PV (M)933,930.73971,240.921,009,658.01
Year 5 PV (M)949,923.78997,594.731,047,160.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,945,704.5126,197,579.0327,499,215.80
Equity Value (M)29,489,186.8030,879,291.1032,322,867.61
Shares Outstanding (M)15,015.5015,015.5015,015.50
Fair Value$1,963.92$2,056.49$2,152.63
Upside / Downside292.78%311.30%330.53%

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